Ministry prepares three socioeconomic development scenarios for 2018–2020

13 April 2017

Russian Minister of Economic Development Maxim Oreshkin says the ministry has prepared three scenarios for Russia’s socioeconomic development in the period from 2018–2020, Prime news agency reports.

“Three sets of scenario conditions have been prepared – conservative, baseline, and target. The conservative scenario features stressful external conditions, while the difference between the baseline and target scenarios is connected to the dynamics of economic growth factors that depend, among other things, on the success of structural and economic policy measures that are planned in the current and following year”, Oreshkin said at a meeting of the Russian government.

The conservative scenario is based on a negative scenario of events unfolding in the Chinese economy and oil prices of USD 40 per barrel of Urals oil.

When presenting the ministry’s updated macro-forecast last Thursday, Oreshkin said two main versions of the forecast had been prepared: baseline and target. Both options imply GDP growth of 2% in 2017 with average annual oil prices of USD 45.6 per barrel.

The main differences between the two scenarios are the forecast for economic growth rates in 2018–2020. The baseline forecast assumes GDP growth of 1.5% per year in 2018–2020 and the target forecast envisages growth of 1.7% in 2018, 2.5% in 2019, and 3.1% in 2020. Thus, in the target version the Ministry of Economic Development is fulfilling the objective set by the president for accelerating the growth rates of the Russian economy to levels no lower global growth rates.

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