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Oreshkin: economy to grow by 2%

27 February 2017

Reporting from Prime notes that Russian Minister of Economic Development Maxim Oreshkin told journalists today that his Ministry is to prepare an updated macroeconomic forecast for 2017 at the end of March, predicting that Russia’s GDP will grow by approximately 2% this year.

“Our updated forecast will be ready at the end of March; our current estimates are for growth of around 2%. We are expecting to see a positive trend in the economy, and are already witnessing an increase in activity”, the Minister said on the margins of the Russian Investment Forum in Sochi.

Oreshkin did not provide any further details of the predicted scenario. The Ministry of Economic Development’s current official forecast for this year predicts a GDP increase of 0.6% linked to an oil price of USD 40 a barrel. The Ministry has also offered an alternative ‘basic plus’ forecast with an average oil price of USD 48 a barrel and growth of 1.1%. Oreshkin has previously stated that 2% growth in Russia’s GDP is possible in the absence of external shocks.

The first data on freight traffic and electricity consumption from the start of the year and the statistical data published for January are quite positive, the Minister explained.

“We are experiencing some regenerative growth, with the crisis period coming to an end on the one hand and levels of economic uncertainty falling sharply on the other – with no drastic steps by the authorities. All of this allows the economy to ‘breathe’ more easily, and facilitates more investment and more growth”, Oreshkin added.

“All the indications are that the economy is already on a trajectory of growth, and that we will see some good figures for the year”, he concluded.

The data for 2016 indicate that the Russian economy contracted by 0.2% last year.

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